The idea that Washington and Tel Aviv would pick a hardline Iranian leader who famously called to wipe Israel off the map to lead a post-war Iran sounds like bad spy fiction. Yet, a bombshell report from The New York Times reveals that this was exactly the blueprint for Operation Epic Fury. During the intense military conflict that broke out on February 28, western intelligence agencies actually targeted a security outpost outside the home of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The goal wasn't to kill him. They wanted to break him out of his de facto house arrest, eliminate his Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) minders, and position him as a populist transitional leader after decapitation strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
It didn't work. The plan fell apart on day one when the strike injured Ahmadinejad instead. He went underground, completely disillusioned by the scheme. Now, as the details leak, the public reaction ranges from utter bewilderment to intense outrage. How did western strategists convince themselves that a man who built his entire career on Holocaust denial and aggressive nuclear enrichment could stabilize a post-Khamenei Iran? Discover more on a connected topic: this related article.
The answer lies in a massive miscalculation of Iran's domestic political reality and a deep misunderstanding of Ahmadinejad’s actual standing inside his own country.
The Evolution of Iran’s Most Unpredictable Populist
To understand why anyone in Washington or Tel Aviv thought this could work, you have to look at what happened to Ahmadinejad after he left the presidency in 2013. He didn't just fade into retirement. Instead, he underwent a bizarre political transformation that alienated him from the very clerical establishment he once served. More analysis by Reuters highlights related views on this issue.
During his presidency from 2005 to 2013, Ahmadinejad was the ultimate hardliner. He aggressively restarted Iran's nuclear enrichment program, violently crushed the 2009 Green Movement protests, and regularly baited the West with inflammatory rhetoric. But after his term ended, his relationship with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei soured spectacularly.
Ahmadinejad transitioned into a rogue populist. He started focusing heavily on Iranian nationalism and ancient Persian heritage—topics the Islamic Republic's clerical elite usually dismiss. He began criticizing government corruption, and in a 2019 interview with The New York Times, he even praised Donald Trump, calling him a "man of action" who knows how to calculate cost-benefits.
The regime noticed. The Guardian Council barred him from running for president in 2017, 2021, and 2024. His close aides were locked up, and the IRGC placed him under strict, quiet surveillance at his home in the Narmak district of eastern Tehran.
Intelligence analysts saw these fractures and mistook them for an opening.
The Secret Travels and the Jailbreak That Failed
The underlying theory behind Operation Epic Fury was that Ahmadinejad’s deep resentment toward the clerical establishment made him malleable. Rumors about his shifting allegiances intensified during his international travels in recent years. He visited Guatemala in 2023 and made trips to Hungary in 2024 and 2025 to speak at a university tied to Viktor Orbán's government. Crucially, both nations maintain quiet, functional ties with Israeli intelligence circles.
Western planners believed these trips provided a window for backchannel contact. They assumed that because Ahmadinejad possessed a recognized brand name and a lingering populist reputation among the working-class, he could manage Iran’s chaotic social and military situation during a sudden power vacuum.
The execution of the plan was chaotic. On the first day of the strikes, the Israeli Air Force hit the security outpost at the entrance of Ahmadinejad's street. They successfully eliminated the IRGC guards holding him captive. However, the blast damaged nearby structures and wounded Ahmadinejad himself. State media initially ran reports claiming the former president was dead before correcting the record hours later.
Instead of stepping into the spotlight to lead a transitional government, a bleeding and terrified Ahmadinejad realized the sheer unpredictability of the foreign intervention. He took his family, fled the scene, and vanished into hiding.
Why the Post-War Transition Plan Was Bound to Fail
The outrage surrounding this disclosure stems from a fundamental truth: the Western strategy relied on a total fantasy. It exposed a recurring flaw in foreign intelligence operations—the tendency to rely on politically marginalized figures while completely underestimating institutional resilience.
First, Ahmadinejad has no real institutional backing left inside Iran. He doesn't have the support of the clerical elite, he has zero leverage over the regular military, and the IRGC views him as a volatile liability. Assuming he could just step in and command authority over a fractured state ignores how power actually operates in Tehran.
Second, the plan assumed the Iranian public would simply accept him. Western strategists forgot that millions of Iranians still remember the brutal crackdowns of 2009. The idea that a public exhausted by economic ruin and social repression would rally behind a former dictator just because he fell out with Khamenei shows a stunning disconnect from the ground reality.
Instead of triggering a rapid government collapse or inspiring elite defections, the failed plot has achieved the exact opposite.
The Fallout Inside Tehran
The leak of Operation Epic Fury is already reshaping the political landscape inside Iran. For years, the regime has dealt with serious intelligence penetrations, usually targeting nuclear scientists or military warehouses. But implicating a high-profile former president takes the paranoia to a completely new level.
The current transitional leadership in Tehran is using this report to validate its worst fears. It proves their long-standing narrative that external powers aren't looking for behavioral adjustments—they want a total structural overthrow. Expect the security apparatus to tighten its grip even further. Any remaining space for internal political dissent or diplomatic compromise with the West is evaporating.
Ahmadinejad’s political career is effectively finished. Even if he resurfaces, the regime will easily brand him as a foreign asset and a traitor, destroying whatever legacy he had left among his working-class base.
For international observers and intelligence agencies, the lesson is clear. You can't build a stable post-war transition on the back of an isolated, unpredictable populist just because he shares a mutual enemy with you. When you try to play three-dimensional chess with flawed assumptions, the pieces usually end up blowing up in your face.
Moving forward, focus should shift away from searching for mythical "inside men" within the old guard. True stability in the region requires analyzing actual public sentiment and structural institutional dynamics, rather than drawing up reckless jailbreak scenarios that collapse on day one.
